30 years of falling interest rates are about to reverse





I opine the headline of the article in the New York Times today “Interest Rates Have Nowhere to Go on the contrary Up” is technically obvious as they literally cannot go any lower. The change is that what has been nearly 30 years from the time of 1981 of a consistent trend of downward moving interest rates we are at once going to see the trend sustainably reverse.

It is expected that encompassing a 100bps rise in rates over the next year, possibly additional, will continue thereafter. This does not seem too large but stolid businesses need to take note.

Many small businesses use credit cards in their blend of finance, they will already have seen those rise significantly considering the Credit CARD Act of 2009 came into effect in February with credit card companies raising rates ahead of this while they could. Business owners be seized of already seen increasing costs or lack of equity in accessing homes / properties and 30 year mortgages are predicted to a~ 50bps in coming months. So this is not a surprise.

But cheap loans have been for some time part of the landscape. How multiplied businesses have assumed the cost of cheap finance into their business model. On a prime + 6% loan a 1% rise may not pretend a lot, but that is more than a 10% increase in financing costs by more to come. It would be timely to revisit assumptions in transaction models to see how the coming years could impact your walk of life.





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