The Era Of Overoptimism





“McKinsey inquiry shows that equity analysts have been overoptimistic for the past allot century: on average, their earnings-growth estimates—ranging from 10 to 12 percent every year, compared with actual growth of 6 percent—were almost 100 percent too high. Only in years of strong growth, such as 2003 to 2006, at the time actual earnings caught up with earlier predictions, do these forecasts strike together the mark.”

[via McKinsey Quarterly]





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